CPG Operator Guide
Promotional ROI Assumptions Guide
Use this guide to document one proposed promotion’s commercial scope, source records, baseline definition, spend and funding assumptions, timing, attribution limits, and qualified review without calculating return.
Define the promotion and review question
Name the product, customer or channel, offer type, period, counterparty, owner, and separate question. Do not combine multiple promotions or assume an outcome.
What to include
- product and customer
- offer and period
- accountable owner
Separate observed baseline from proposed assumptions
Identify dated historical sales, pricing, cost, trade, customer, and operational records. Label proposed offer, duration, funding, volume, timing, or customer response as assumptions.
What to include
- historical records
- proposed assumptions
- known gaps
Describe the proposed offer and commercial terms
Record the stated offer, eligible products, customer or channel, invoice or shelf context, dates, terms, claim owner, and unresolved agreement questions without interpreting enforceability.
What to include
- offer description
- commercial terms
- source owner
Define spend and funding scope
Identify documented or proposed allowances, billbacks, discounts, fees, broker items, marketing support, display, sampling, logistics, or other spend with basis, currency, timing, and funding owner.
What to include
- spend item
- basis and timing
- funding owner
Record baseline, attribution, and timing limits
State the baseline period, competing events, customer activity, distribution, inventory, stockout, price, seasonality, timing, and data limitations that may affect attribution.
What to include
- baseline period
- confounding conditions
- data limitations
Record uncertainty and exclusions
List demand, volume, customer, service, capacity, inventory, margin, accounting, tax, legal, and contract questions plus costs and outcomes excluded from the proposed review.
What to include
- uncertainty
- explicit exclusions
- review path
Prepare the qualified handoff
Retain product, customer, offer, period, source dates, spend assumptions, baseline definition, exclusions, evidence gaps, and named reviewers for separate analysis.
What to include
- reviewed packet
- named reviewers
- analysis owner
How this page fits the Tools system
Channel Contribution Margin Planner may execute CHANNEL-CONTRIBUTION-V1 only after selected revenue and variable assumptions are reviewed; this page owns one promotion’s evidence and assumption framing only.
The guide ends with a proposed-promotion source and assumptions packet, not promotional ROI, lift, margin impact, return, recommendation, approval, or ranking.
What this page does—and does not—show
This guide prepares one proposed promotion’s evidence and assumption packet. It does not calculate or validate promotional ROI, lift, margin impact, demand, revenue, spend efficiency, return, price, volume, or a promotion decision.
Channel Contribution Margin Planner exclusively executes CHANNEL-CONTRIBUTION-V1 for one reviewed channel assumption set; this guide does not reproduce an owner control, formula, output, forecast, score, or recommendation.
Evidence and review boundary
Tier C. This guide prepares one proposed promotion’s evidence and assumption packet. It does not calculate or validate promotional ROI, lift, margin impact, demand, revenue, spend efficiency, return, price, volume, or a promotion decision.
Commercial and finance owners, with accounting, sales, operations, procurement, customer, tax, legal, or executive review appropriate to the stated question.
No external rate or rule is embedded; values and assumptions come from the user.
Related tools and next steps
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Guidance is being rebuilt with CPG design partners to connect these planning steps to a shared operating model. That connected product workflow is not available for live product demonstrations today. This standalone browser page does not connect to a Guidance account, product data, or a live operating workflow.
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